UPDATED: Why I’m Now Convinced Trump Can Win, and Why That (Used to) Scare the Daylights Out of Me

Since I am going to make this blog public again, and going to focus on my new social media life, I have to add some updates to this, the first one: I’m now voting for Donald Trump. Why? I’m adding updates below, where I can fight with myself from a year ago.

The social conservative is dead, and Donald Trump is hammering the nails in the coffin.

Sunday news coverage is the lifeblood of the American news cycle: newspapers place their biggest ads on Sunday, which means their online editions contain the stories that they most expect their readers to want. And Trump currently owns the news cycle. What I originally perceived to be a laughing stock changed as far as I could see into a solid strategy by an old friend of the Clintons to get Hillary in power, based on Trump’s doggedness in pursuit of the Republican nomination.

UPDATED: Well, now we know of the level of media collusion and Hillary’s strategy of getting Trump in as a Pied Piper candidate. It was all a setup to keep the oligarchy in power.
And I hate oligarchies.

But I’m not even sure of that anymore.

The summer before the primaries is the time in American politics where we watch candidates rise and fall, and usually we can get a “sense” of who’s moving forward, and who’s dropping.  The closest we can even get to a meteoric rise and fall in recent memory (and no, it isn’t even really close) is the Herman Cain campaign of 2010-2011, which imploded in the fall after sexual allegations which Cain maintained were false.

A big difference is that Cain was courting values voters. Trump doesn’t appear to even care. Running his campaign in much the same way he runs everything else — brash, rude, kind of a bully, somewhat womanizing– a secret memo linked to Politico wouldn’t even work. An affair might even help his numbers with the anger brigades on Reddit. This is a man who literally said half the people coming across the border were hardened criminals, to the horror of even Rupert Murdoch, owner of Fox News– and people cheered him on. This is someone who literally called a man who spent six years in a Vietnamese prison camp a loser and got actual military to cheer with him because “well, McCain sucks”.

Correction: I never expected the media to trot out over a dozen Trump accusers in a week, one of whom was a Clinton employee and the other (I kid you not) a porn star using the accusation to jumpstart interest in her online store.

And when it comes to religion, this is a man who said God doesn’t inform his decisions and the “wine and the cracker” were religion enough. I’d bet money that upon hearing this, at least a few thousand Trump fans decided to stay home on Sunday and watch ESPN instead.

Correction: Nah, I was right here.

At first I thought these would all be reasons for Trump to effectively split the Republican ticket and hand the presidency to Hillary: indeed, there are already both liberals and Tea Partiers salivating over the prospect. But as I see more of how Trump’s supporter base is moving, I’m starting to become a little horrified at the possibility that Trump will be the next president, and that his running mate will be future President Camacho or at the very least Ted Cruz.

Update: Lyin’ Ted. Nuff said.

Here’s why: Trump actually owns Hillary on every major issue, and he’s the guy from TV.

We know Hillary will have to plot a Wall Street friendly campaign (something Trump probably knows how to do better) and she’s hamstrung by Bernie Sanders to the left. In short, she couldn’t run a left-wing campaign against Trump even if she wanted to.

Update: I never expected Trump to turn on Wall Street.

Hardcore Republicans are screaming about Obamacare. Hillary will stick with the status quo. But Trump’s position on Obamacare isn’t actually to destroy it: it’s to remake it, and basically rename it, and he’s basically said as much repeatedly. His position is identical to that of a Blue Dog Democrat, and he can paint Hillary as responsible for the Obamacare spectre while not actually saying he’ll do anything differently. Just throw in oil. And terrorists. And freedom to have guns and stuff.

Correction: Trump’s healthcare plan seems to be an actual reversal of Obamacare. I can live with this.

On every major issue, Trump’s style allows him to sound like a crazed nativist while literally aping the center-left, meaning that he can say the exact same thing as his Democratic opponent while blaming her (yes, her) for it.

Update: I was right on this, but didn’t expect Hillary’s media friends to try to paint Trump as “grabby Hitler”.

Hillary Clinton has a huge image problem. She’s spent eight years trying to move her popularity ratings forward, and has worked hard to look “presidential”. But Trump isn’t trying to look presidential: he’s trying to look like a populist. I’m not convinced Trump can name the entire Bill of Rights. One of his party platforms is to make sure Americans “write good”. But who cares? He’s the guy from TV who says “you’re fired!” And who wouldn’t want to fire Hillary Clinton?

Update: I’d also like to fire Hillary Clinton, since I never wanted her in the White House to begin with, but I thought we’d be dealing with another GOP opponent. To be honest, I actually want the whole system to burn down now considering the GOP establishment has gone for Hillary.

Since Trump isn’t seriously courting social conservatives or morals voters, he’s unfortunately scandal-proof.

Correction: I stand corrected. Apparently even a fake scandal can fool people.

He’d have to confront a scandal the majority of the country isn’t prepared to actually accept in a President: think “Adrian Peterson”, not an extramarital affair. Think “Enron”, not a business collapse.

Correction: Or the media could just blatantly make stuff up at the behest of the Clinton campaign.

Trump is likely the first candidate in American history where a sex scandal could actually give him voters. Due to his incendiary comments, he’s lost business partners left and right. His response, “I’ve lost so much in the service of this country.” He’s turned his nastiness into philanthropy.

Correction: Having listened to more of Trump’s talks later I realize he wasn’t being nasty. Apologies to Trump.

Liberals are quick to say that Trump’s campaign is a sideshow, a sort of ridiculous carnival to be ignored and derided. Much ado has been made of HuffPo refusing to put Trump on their main page, relegating him to “entertainment”. Trump doesn’t care. Because he knows that’s where the majority of HuffPo’s readers– shoot, almost everyone’s readers– are anyway.

Update: I was kind of right on this during the GOP primaries, but this was clearly a setup to make Trump an easy loss to Hillary. Well, I’d rather vote in Trump than Hillary.

When Cain hit his stride after the summer debates from 18% in the Spring, he was the most popular GOP candidate by summer with 37% of Republican voters. Trump, without a single debate, is already at 34%. And debates don’t move the meter much: with virtually the entire liberal and conservative establishment predicting he’ll fizz out by the end of the year, all Trump really has to do to win the nomination and– barring some magical transformation from “grandma pantsuits” into a flipping superstar, the presidency– is to just keep showing up.

And that scares me– not simply because of what it says about Trump, but really, what it says about a country probably readier than ever to vote him in.

Close: This was before the email scandals, before they shafted Bernie, before the Wikileaks, and it’s apparent that Hillary Clinton is actually WORSE than I previously thought. She’s a felon, and I’d rather vote any law abiding citizen in than a hardcore felon. Trump has suffered. They’ve put him and his family through hell. Somehow he’s still here.

He’s earned my vote.